Calendar rules, measured against holding

Separate seasonal patterns from market drift.

Most “seasonal winners” are just bull-market stocks going up. We test every weekday, month-end, holiday and calendar window across 1,456 US stocks and ETFs against holding the exact same asset for the exact same number of sessions, so market drift never fools you.

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Seven named strategies on SPY, each fixed by a study before it was measured here, with every trade since shown in the track record.

Entering in the next 5 sessions

Shortlist rules entering soon. Each has 15+ years of history and beat holding the same symbol in at least 80% of its years and in each of the last two. Gross returns, from history, not a forecast.

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Find rules that beat holding

Every calendar rule on every symbol, sorted by how much it added each year over holding the same symbol for the same length.

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Test your own idea

Enter a date window, weekday or month, and see year by year whether it beat holding the same symbol for the same number of days.

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See one symbol's year

Its average path through the year, its weekdays and month-ends, and a heatmap of them, for any of 1,456 symbols.

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Follow the strategies

7 rules on SPY: their evidence, this year's trades, and the next entry and exit.

Discover an idea, test it, and understand the evidence. Follow a strategy, see its upcoming trades, and verify the result afterward.

Two claims, checked as the page loads

How every number is tested

  • Measured against holding, not zero. Stocks drift up over decades, so a positive return alone proves little. Every rule is judged by its excess over holding the same symbol for the same number of sessions.
  • A fixed research cutoff. Rules are found only on prices through December 31, 2025. Results since are shown beside them, on held-out prices, and never feed into how rules are found or ranked.
  • Strategies fixed in advance. Each strategy’s rule was set by a study before it was measured here, and it has not changed since.
  • Every figure defined. Read the definitions in the glossary.
Members see every strategy trade since the cutoff

Ask your AI app

Connect SeasonalEdge to ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude or your coding tool, and ask in plain words. The app reads the same scan, rules, strategies and track record you see here, and cannot change anything. SeasonalEdge is a remote MCP server, the open standard these apps use for connectors.

  1. 1. Add the connector. In your app’s connector settings, paste https://seasonaledge.com/api/mcp
  2. 2. Sign in and allow it. The app opens SeasonalEdge; sign in with your account. There is no key to copy.
  3. 3. Ask. Disconnect it any time from your account page.
  • “Which calendar rules on SPY enter in the next five sessions, and in how many of their years did each beat holding?”
  • “Check AAPL, MSFT and NVDA: which rules enter in the next month, and how did each do after the research cutoff?”
  • “Did buying QQQ on the last session of the month beat holding it, year by year?”
  • Answers carry the same figures as the site: gross returns, computed on history through the research cutoff, with later results apart. Not a forecast and not advice.
How to connect each appMembers connect their apps: get access

Calendar folklore, checked against the hold

Members get the full rule behind each pattern, the Scan of every symbol, Check for their own claims, and the strategies’ next entries.

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