The FOMC announcement day on SPY
Has SPY done better on Federal Reserve announcement days than an ordinary day?
From 2000 to 2025, this rule did better than holding SPY for the same number of sessions in 14 of 26 years. Its average trade returned +0.07% gross, against +0.04% for holding SPY over the same number of sessions: an average excess of +0.03%.
Years it did no better than holding: 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision on eight scheduled days a year. This page holds SPY from the open of each announcement day to the next open, and compares every year with holding SPY for the same number of sessions.
Research through 2025-12-31; prices through 2026-10-16. Gross, before any trading cost or tax. Computed on history: see the hypothetical performance notice and how these pages are computed.
SPY
Enter on the day of a scheduled FOMC announcement, exit 1 session after it
Every figure is gross, and compares each trade with holding SPY for the same number of sessions.
Summary
+0.07%
+0.04%
+0.03%
+0.04%
+0.22%
54%
14 of 26 years
55%
113 of 207 trades
62%
16 of 26 years
0.00%
65%
15 of 23 windows
+3.09%
-0.01%
26Trades 207 8.0First half +0.15%Second half -0.11%Best year, per trade 2007 +0.81% 2020 -0.88%
: 2026, out of sample
Every trade that closed after 2025-12-31, through 2026-10-16. None of them reached a figure above: this is the rule on prices it was not measured on. Gross, at the open.
Trades closed
6
2 of 6 up
Return, summed
-1.55%
Excess, summed
-1.79%
over holding SPY the same length
Position now
None
| Entry | Exit | Return | Excess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-17 | +0.48% | +0.04% | +0.44% |
| 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-30 | -0.53% | +0.04% | -0.57% |
| 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-18 | -0.22% | +0.04% | -0.25% |
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 | +0.51% | +0.04% | +0.47% |
| 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-19 | -1.70% | +0.04% | -1.74% |
| 2026-01-28 | 2026-01-29 | -0.09% | +0.04% | -0.13% |
Next trades
- Enter at the open of Oct 28, 2026, exit at the open of Oct 29, 2026
- Enter at the open of Dec 9, 2026, exit at the open of Dec 10, 2026
- Enter at the open of Jan 27, 2027, exit at the open of Jan 28, 2027
Yearly excess with rolling 4-year average
Each bar is a year's mean excess per trade over holding SPY for the same length. The line is the mean of four consecutive years, drawn at the last of them; a missing year breaks it.
Every year (26)
| Year | Trades | Return | Mean excess | Total excess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 8 | -0.45% | +0.04% | -0.49% | -3.92% |
| 2001 | 8 | -0.37% | +0.04% | -0.41% | -3.25% |
| 2002 | 8 | +0.64% | +0.04% | +0.60% | +4.78% |
| 2003 | 8 | +0.43% | +0.04% | +0.39% | +3.15% |
| 2004 | 8 | +0.01% | +0.04% | -0.03% | -0.23% |
| 2005 | 8 | -0.20% | +0.04% | -0.24% | -1.91% |
| 2006 | 8 | +0.32% | +0.04% | +0.28% | +2.24% |
| 2007 | 8 | +0.85% | +0.04% | +0.81% | +6.46% |
| 2008 | 8 | +0.53% | +0.04% | +0.49% | +3.93% |
| 2009 | 8 | +0.69% | +0.04% | +0.65% | +5.20% |
| 2010 | 8 | +0.15% | +0.04% | +0.11% | +0.88% |
| 2011 | 8 | -0.65% | +0.04% | -0.69% | -5.54% |
| 2012 | 8 | +0.55% | +0.04% | +0.51% | +4.09% |
| 2013 | 8 | -0.12% | +0.04% | -0.16% | -1.30% |
| 2014 | 8 | +0.39% | +0.04% | +0.35% | +2.82% |
| 2015 | 8 | -0.09% | +0.04% | -0.13% | -1.00% |
| 2016 | 8 | +0.11% | +0.04% | +0.07% | +0.57% |
| 2017 | 8 | -0.05% | +0.04% | -0.09% | -0.71% |
| 2018 | 8 | -0.76% | +0.04% | -0.80% | -6.42% |
| 2019 | 8 | +0.01% | +0.04% | -0.03% | -0.20% |
| 2020 | 7 | -0.84% | +0.04% | -0.88% | -6.16% |
| 2021 | 8 | +0.33% | +0.04% | +0.29% | +2.32% |
| 2022 | 8 | -0.67% | +0.04% | -0.71% | -5.65% |
| 2023 | 8 | +0.36% | +0.04% | +0.32% | +2.54% |
| 2024 | 8 | +0.23% | +0.04% | +0.19% | +1.56% |
| 2025 | 8 | +0.23% | +0.04% | +0.19% | +1.53% |